For the second year in a row the winner of the Western Conference finals will be decided by the Edmonton Oilers and the Dallas Stars. Dallas holds home ice advantage, but that hasn’t stopped the Oilers so far.

Goaltending

It shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that the Dallas Stars are the favorites when it comes to goaltending. Calvin Pickard (injured) is 6-0 this post season, and unlikely to come back between the pipes until the latter half of this series at the earliest.

Meanwhile, Stuart Skinner’s record is 2-3, with a 0.884 save percentage – important to note, however, that those wins came in the form of back-to-back shutouts. Skinner is a known quality. His lateral movement isn’t particularily elite, so Edmonton needs to limit passing opportunities and allow Skinner to play his positional style of game.

Jake Oettinger has an 8-5 record and a 0.919 save percentage. Oettinger is the best goaltender remaining in the 2025 playoffs, however that doesn’t spell the end of the world. Darcy Kuemper was a vezina finalist this year, and that didn’t prevent Edmonton from scoring on him 23 times.

The secret to beating Oettinger will be crashing the net and finding shooting lanes on the stick side. Jake Oettinger has let in 32 games this playoffs; 69% of those goals have been from the left side of the ice, or in front of the crease – coincidentally these areas are where the Oilers score a majority of their goals from.

The Stars will need to keep players like McDavid and Kane from generating pressure around the left faceoff dot, and hope that Oettinger can keep the Draisaitl’s of the world at bay on the glove side.

Skaters

It can’t be denied that both of these teams have offensive firepower. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl basically require a full time assignment on them each and every game to prevent either player from going supernova, but this year the Dallas Stars also have rockstar firepower in the form of a red hot Mikko Rantanen – who has nine goals and ten assists so far this post season.

Edmonton currently has 11 skaters with two or more goals. Dallas, on the other hand, only has five. 47% of the Stars’ goals have been scored by their first line, (assuming a Granlund-Hintz-Rantanen line). Rantanen alone accounts for a quarter of Dallas’ goal scoring production. If the series boils down to depth scoring, Edmonton is the clear favorite.

Through the first two rounds the Oilers have shot more (361 shots compared to Dallas’ 323), and shot more accurately (11.9% to Dallas’ 10.5%). Additionally the Stars have had to work harder to get to the Conference Finals. Dallas has played two extra games and skated an extra 65 miles compared to the Oilers. The Stars also don’t have the luxury of a week long break, though admittedly Edmonton tends to start slow after too many rest days. Edmonton needs to capitalize on the Stars’ extended workload by continuing to aggressively forecheck the way they did against Las Vegas.

Special Teams

Edmonton’s powerplay (25%) and penalty kill (66.7%) are not exactly spectacular. Games 1 and 2 in LA are likely driving down the PK stat, but Edmonton’s powerplay has been abysmal on the road through the playoffs, with the Oilers boasting an 0/14 record through 11 games.

It’ll be cliche to say, but the Oilers need to stay out of the box. Trading powerplay opportunities with Mikko Rantanen and company just isn’t a winning strategy for this current Oilers iteration, which has found their recent success with disciplined 5-on-5 play.

Dallas holds the statistical specialty team advantage in both the powerplay (30.8%) and the penalty kill (86.1%).

Verdict

Jake Oettinger is a strong goaltender, no doubt, but Edmonton had him figured out last year and it would be naive to think that this year’s deeper forward group can’t do the same.

Edmonton’s scoring has been coming from a much larger pool – and that should be concerning for the Stars. Rantanen will be a huge talking point in the upcoming series – the Star’s Stanley Cup bid likely lives or dies on his shoulders.

Dallas has been stronger with their special teams, but Edmonton always seems to find a way – and Edmonton’s PK has been up to task in the last several games. The Oilers are favored if the whistles stay in the referees’ pockets.

Oilers in six.